Step 1 of 8

Let's start with the basics

Tell us the basics and we'll show you if your retirement plan holds up.

Enter what you spend today — we'll adjust for inflation automatically each year. Do not include healthcare costs — we'll estimate those separately in Step 6.

Used to calculate your federal income tax during retirement.

Step 2 of 8

Pre-retirement contributions

How much will you save each year until retirement, and where will it go?

Already retired? You can skip this step — just click Continue below.

Include 401k, IRA contributions, and brokerage deposits — all the money you'll add to investments this year

Percentages must total 100%

%
%
%
%
Total 0%

Step 3 of 8

Your investment accounts

Add each account. Give it a name you'll recognize, pick its type, and enter the current balance.

💡 Why account type matters: Each type is taxed differently, so the withdrawal strategy depends on knowing which bucket money is in.

Select type to add an account

🎦
Taxable
Brokerage, stocks, CDs, money market, savings accounts — taxed on gains and interest
🏛️
Traditional IRA / 401k
Traditional IRA, 401k, 403b, SEP-IRA, pension lump sum — pre-tax contributions, taxed on withdrawal
☀️
Roth IRA / 401k
Roth IRA, Roth 401k, Roth 403b — after-tax contributions, grows completely tax-free

New account

e.g. "My 401k", "Roth IRA", "Brokerage Account"

🏥 Have an HSA? Your Health Savings Account is set up in the Healthcare step (Step 6), where it connects directly to your healthcare cost projections.

Step 4 of 8

Your income in retirement

Tell us about money coming in during retirement — Social Security, pension, part-time work. This reduces how much you'll draw from savings.

New income source

Step 5 of 8

Windfalls & Financial Events

Add windfalls or recurring cash flows you expect — home sales, inheritances, business sales, rental proceeds, or any lump sum. These are separate from recurring retirement income.

💡 Optional step. Skip if you don't expect any large windfalls or recurring cash flows. Events add to your portfolio when they occur.

Select event type to add

🏠
Home Sale
Primary residence
🏢
Rental Property
Investment property
💼
Business Sale
Business proceeds
💎
Inheritance
Estate proceeds
⚖️
Settlement
Legal settlement
💸
Other
Other windfall

New event

e.g. "Home sale proceeds", "Inheritance from estate"

Step 6 of 8

Healthcare & Planned Expenses

Tell us about your healthcare coverage and any major planned expenses. We use this to model your full retirement cost picture.

💊 Healthcare

Children up to age 26 affect your household size (used for ACA subsidy calculations) and premium costs. We automatically remove them from your plan the year they turn 27.

💊 Healthcare Cost Estimate

Traditional Medicare has unlimited OOP exposure. Medicare Advantage plans cap annual OOP but vary by insurer.

Used to estimate out-of-pocket costs. Conservative plans for higher utilization, chronic conditions, or cautious planning.

Enter the unsubsidized Silver plan premium for your area. If you use ACA marketplace, we still calculate and apply your income-based subsidy on top of this — so enter the full sticker price, not your net cost. Leave blank to use our state-adjusted estimate.

Key assumptions
Pre-65 estimate basisUnsubsidized Silver plan, state-adjusted
Medicare coverageTraditional Medicare, ~$2,400/yr Part B+D
OOP modelBased on plan type & health status
IRMAA threshold (single)$106k MAGI (2-yr lag)
Healthcare inflation5%/yr above general CPI
Taxable dividend yield1.5%/yr of balance (editable in Step 7)
ACA subsidy modelHard cliff at 400% FPL (2026 law)
Pre-65 estimates use unsubsidized Silver plan rates adjusted for your state. Your actual cost may be lower if you qualify for ACA income-based subsidies — the simulation applies subsidy math based on projected MAGI each year. Check healthcare.gov for your state's actual rates.
🏥 Health Savings Account (HSA)

HSA funds are used first to cover your healthcare costs — tax-free. Any excess after healthcare is covered acts as a supplemental retirement account post-65.

Do you have an HSA?

What's an HSA and why does it matter? ↓
📋 Planned Expenses
💡 Optional. Add major costs before or during retirement — college, weddings, home renovations, travel. These increase your withdrawal needs for those years.

New expense

Step 7 of 8

Market assumptions

These drive the Monte Carlo simulation. The defaults are reasonable — most people can skip this step.

Most people can skip this. The defaults are based on historical S&P 500 data.

NestCalc uses a two-model approach: normal years use the inputs below, while crash years are handled by a separate distribution. Volatility here applies to normal years only — crash years are modeled separately. Historical S&P 500 CAGR is ~10%; set your expected return target accordingly.

Annual market return target

Normal year variability only

Annual cost-of-living increase

Keeps returns near target (0–1)

Estimated annual dividends/distributions from taxable holdings. Counts toward ACA MAGI even if not withdrawn. Default: 1.5%

Return earned on windfall proceeds kept as cash. Default: 0% (conservative). Use 4–5% to model a high-yield savings account. Cash acts as a market downturn buffer — drawn more heavily when annual returns are negative.

Advanced simulation parameters
⚠️ These affect simulation realism. Changing them can make any plan look better or worse. Defaults are based on historical market data.

Normal years

Maximum single-year return. Historically only ~4 years in 95 exceeded 35%.

% Default: 35%

Crash years

📉 Crash year model

These three parameters define what a "crash year" looks like. Each year has a probability of being a crash year. If it is, the return is drawn from a distribution centered at the mean, but capped at the ceiling — ensuring crash years always hurt.

Probability

% chance of a crash year
Default: 7%

Mean return

Avg crash severity
Fixed — not editable

Ceiling

Best a crash year can return
Default: −5%

📊 With defaults, combined effective volatility across all years is approximately ~14%. Note: the target return is an arithmetic mean input; actual CAGR (geometric mean) will be roughly 1–1.5% lower due to volatility drag.

Methodology (fixed)

Standard deduction

$29,200 MFJ

Tax brackets

2026 IRS

RMD table

IRS Uniform

Cap gains rates

0% / 15% / 20%

Step 8 of 8

Review your inputs

Everything look right? We'll run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations to estimate your retirement success rate.

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